金融期货早班车-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to use stock index futures as a long - term alternative, and to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - In the medium to long term, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On February 24, the four major A - share stock indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36% to 14291.57 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99% to 3308.26 points. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.34% to 1465.37 points. The market turnover was 22,182 billion yuan, an increase of 2,192 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+5.53%), building materials (+3.71%), and basic chemicals (+3.45%) performed well; media (-3.2%), computer (-1.81%), and commercial retail (-1.46%) performed averagely. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,003/87/1,388 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 5, - 110, - 54, and 160 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +146, +93, - 122, and - 116 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Basis and Trading Strategy: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 28.77, 21.31, 24.14, and 3.92 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 4.56%, - 3.34%, - 6.75%, and - 1.7% respectively, with the three - year historical quantiles being 71%, 66%, 17%, and 34% respectively. The medium - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a long - term view on the economy and recommend allocating forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: On February 24, treasury bond futures strengthened slightly. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.07%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.2% [3]. - Cash Bond and Trading Strategy: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.22%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.009, and an IRR of 1.53%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.027, and an IRR of 1.09%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 1.9 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.08, and an IRR of 0.48%. In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 5,260 billion yuan and withdrew 14,524 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9,264 billion yuan. The medium - to - long - term trading strategy is to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that except for infrastructure, the prosperity of various data exceeds the same period in previous years, and the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that of the same period in previous years [11].