2026年1月债市托管数据点评：上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率持平

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Economic recovery is accelerating due to the falsification of the under - expected economic recovery and the implementation of wide - credit and wide - fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026. If there are wide - monetary policies, it may be a chance for reduction. Attention should be paid to the inflation situation, especially whether the PPI month - on - month increase can remain positive. If inflation rises continuously, there is a possibility of tightened funds, which will lead to an upward yield of short - term bonds. Real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation - The total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) in January was 179.31 trillion yuan (previous value: 178.55 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 757.617 billion yuan (+302.571 billion yuan), and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 176.293 billion yuan (previous decrease: 204.504 billion yuan), with less decrease compared to December. The custody volume of CCDC increased by 933.910 billion yuan (previous increase: 507.075 billion yuan), and the month - on - month increase rebounded [3][4]. Bond Types - In Shanghai Clearing House, credit bonds contributed the main increment in the month, with a net monthly increase of 324.120 billion yuan; corporate credit - related bonds increased by 284.120 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds increased 74.000 billion yuan less month - on - month; inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 656.158 billion yuan. In CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 549.357 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds increased by 1004.506 billion yuan; credit bonds increased by - 70.595 billion yuan. Overall, interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 124.22 trillion yuan (previous value: 123.15 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 1078.506 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 34.14 trillion yuan (previous value: 33.88 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 264.385 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.03 trillion yuan (previous value: 19.69 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 656.158 billion yuan [5]. Institutions - In Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and securities firms increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 134.960 billion yuan, 4.056 billion yuan, and 12.500 billion yuan respectively. Policy banks, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net increases, which were - 27.540 billion yuan, - 233.480 billion yuan, and - 88.957 billion yuan respectively. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings, with a net monthly increase of 1021.526 billion yuan. Insurance companies, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net increases in custody volume, which were - 12.460 billion yuan, - 473.979 billion yuan, and - 18.804 billion yuan respectively. Overall, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 95.55 trillion yuan (previous value: 94.40 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 1144.653 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities firms was 3.22 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.15 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 69.946 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.16 trillion yuan (previous value: 48.86 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 707.458 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.35 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.46 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 107.761 billion yuan [6]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in January was 107.14% (unchanged from the previous month). By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks and securities firms increased, while that of non - bank institutions decreased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 105.00% (previous value: 104.61%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.73% (previous value: 110.17%), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 percentage points, among which the leverage ratio of securities firms was 143.11% (previous value: 140.07%), with a month - on - month increase of 3.04 percentage points [7].