关税下调叠加下年度供需缩紧，郑棉增仓大涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view that the cotton price will move upward in the medium to long term and fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips. The core drivers are the tight balance of China's cotton supply - demand structure in the 25/26 season and the possible decline in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Today, Zhengzhou cotton opened high and moved higher. The main contract added more than 90,000 lots, breaking through the 15,000 yuan/ton mark and the previous high in early January, closing at 15,285 yuan/ton [2]. Market Review - Macro - level: The tariff reduction boosted the commodity market atmosphere. The US Supreme Court ruled that the large - scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" (IEEPA) were invalid. Trump announced a new 10% global temporary tariff starting from February 24, 2026 (valid for 150 days), and then raised it to 15%. The 20% tariff imposed on China by the US since last year has dropped to 15% [2]. - Industry - level: The first forecast report of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum for the 26/27 season is positive. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption to increase by 1.2%, ending stocks to decrease by 5.2%, and the stock - to - consumption ratio to decline by 6.3%. In the US, the cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, the harvested area to decrease by 2.2%, and the total production to decrease by 2.3%. Consumption remains flat, exports increase by 1.7%, ending stocks decrease by 4.5%, and the stock - to - consumption ratio declines by 6.2%. A decline in the US cotton stock - to - consumption ratio will drive up the medium - to - long - term price center [3]. Outlook for the Future - In the medium to long term, the cotton price is expected to rise. However, in the short term, whether the upward trend continues or slows depends on other factors. The current low price of the external market and the widening internal - external price difference limit the upside of the domestic market. Attention should be paid to the USDA's cotton planting intention report at the end of March, weather conditions, the "Golden March and Silver April" demand season after the Spring Festival, and the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy [4].