20260225申万期货品种策略日报-双焦（JM&J）-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a fluctuating trend in the night session yesterday. The total position of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the output of clean coal from mines decreased slightly month - on - month, the import volume of Mongolian coal decreased from the high level but remained at the highest level in the same period. The supply pressure of coking coal has been relieved. The increase in molten iron output on the demand side was not obvious, and the output of downstream coke remained basically the same month - on - month, lacking obvious incremental demand. After the festival, with the resumption of work and production, there is an expectation of an increase in molten iron output, which will drive the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke and strongly support coal prices. In the future, attention should be paid to the trend of molten iron output, mine operation, and import - related policy trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Data of Coking Coal and Coke Futures Contracts - Price Changes: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices of the 9 - month, 1 - month, and 5 - month contracts were 1365.5, 1101.5, and 1184.5 respectively, with changes of - 10.5, - 19.5, and - 17.0 compared to the day before, and price change rates of - 0.76%, - 1.74%, and - 1.41% respectively. For coke, the previous day's closing prices of the 9 - month, 1 - month, and 5 - month contracts were 1800.0, 1634.5, and 1706.5 respectively, with changes of - 40.0, - 47.5, and - 44.5 compared to the day before, and price change rates of - 2.17%, - 2.82%, and - 2.54% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts for 9 - month, 1 - month, and 5 - month were 2201, 592026, and 39587 respectively, and the open interests were 9972, 468538, and 87519 respectively, with increases of 702, 56059, and 1720 respectively. The trading volumes of coke contracts for 9 - month, 1 - month, and 5 - month were 611, 19187, and 1014 respectively, and the open interests were 808, 39187, and 2307 respectively, with increases of 82, 3937, and 368 respectively [2]. - Spread Data: For coking coal, the current spreads of 1 - month minus 5 - month, 5 - month minus 9 - month, and 9 - month minus 1 - month were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current spreads of 1 - month minus 5 - month, 5 - month minus 9 - month, and 9 - month minus 1 - month were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [2]. Spot Price Data - The spot prices of Mongolian No. 5 primary coking coal (port self - pick - up price), low - sulfur primary coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur primary coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade I coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - Grade I coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I coke (warehouse - out price) were 1227, 1570, 1391, 1852, 1330, and 1470 respectively, with no changes [2]. Macro - related Information - On February 24, the People's Bank of China announced that the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, for the ninth consecutive month. In addition, the central bank planned to conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation on February 25 with a term of 1 year, using the method of fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids [2].