2026W7：春节期间港股地产板块整体上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][18]. Core Views - The current policy environment is expected to be more forceful than in 2008 and 2014, driven by fundamental pressures [2][18]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a barometer for economic trends [2][18]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [2][18]. - The focus remains on first-tier cities, two-thirds of second-tier cities, and a very limited number of third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [2][18]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and the proper handling of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [2][18]. Summary by Sections New Home and Second-Hand Home Transaction Data - During the 2026 Spring Festival, new home transactions reached 112,000 square meters (up 7.4% year-on-year), while second-hand home transactions were 22,000 square meters (up 96.8% year-on-year) [8][10]. Hong Kong Stock Market Review - The Hong Kong real estate sector saw an overall increase during the Spring Festival, with the real estate HK (CITIC) index rising by 2.34% [10][11]. - Among 80 Hong Kong real estate development stocks, 50 increased, 10 remained flat, and 20 decreased during the festival [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Real estate development: Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao in H-shares; and Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Co., Poly Developments, and Huafa Group in A-shares [2][18]. - Local state-owned enterprises and city investment companies: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Urban Construction Development [2][18]. - Real estate intermediaries: Beike-W [2][18]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, China Merchants Jiyu, Greentown Services, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property [2][18].