光大期货金融期货日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to be volatile. Although geopolitical risks such as the US - Iran conflict and Trump's tariff policy may impact the global equity market, the overall influence is limited. The technology theme is a relatively certain main line in the first half of this year, while the stabilization and recovery of the consumption and pro - cyclical sectors may occur after the inflation data turns warmer [1]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile with a bearish bias. The core drivers of the bond market recently are the loose capital supply and the weak economic recovery, but it is restricted by factors such as government bond supply pressure and the warming of the equity market. With the 10 - year Treasury yield breaking below the important 1.8% mark, the "odds of going long" for further decline are insufficient [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index: On February 24, most stocks in the A - share market rose. The Wind All - A index rose 1.06% with a trading volume of 222 million yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 1.16%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.12%, the SSE 300 index rose 1.01%, and the SSE 50 index rose 0.23%. Geopolitical risks are still brewing, and the US - Iran conflict may break out soon. Trump's tariff policy may impact the global equity market, but the overall influence is limited. The style switch after the Spring Festival is a market concern, and the technology theme is a strong main line in the first half of the year [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. The central bank carried out 526 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase on February 24, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan. The bond market is currently in a state of "narrow - range yield fluctuations with the ultra - long end leading the rise", and is expected to be bearishly volatile [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The IH contract decreased by 8.4 points (- 0.27%), the IF contract increased by 2.0 points (0.04%), the IC contract increased by 112.4 points (1.35%), and the IM contract increased by 97.0 points (1.18%) [3]. - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 index decreased by 8.7 points (- 0.28%), the SSE 300 index increased by 5.8 points (0.12%), the CSI 500 index increased by 97.8 points (1.17%), and the CSI 1000 index increased by 75.3 points (0.91%) [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The TS contract increased by 0.036 points (0.04%), the TF contract increased by 0.015 points (0.01%), the T contract increased by 0.045 points (0.04%), and the TL contract increased by 0.12 points (0.11%) [3]. 3.3 Market News - During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the travel scale reached a new high. The cumulative cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society exceeded 28 billion person - times, with an average daily flow of 311 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides various charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis [6][7][8][9][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][17][19]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [22][23][24][26][27].