航运(集运)：现货缓跌叠加地缘与关税双重情绪利多驱动 EC各合约增仓上行

Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is for a volatile market, suggesting to pay attention to going long on Contracts 05 and 06 on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Against the backdrop of potential deterioration in the Middle East geopolitical situation during the holiday, an adjustment in US tariff policies with a certain reduction in the actual implementation rate, and the EU's decision to extend the Red Sea escort plan, the sentiment side provides some support to the market. The spot price has not shown obvious signs of decline, and the futures market has increased positions to repair the discount [2] - The market is still trading around the near - month contracts, with a significant increase in positions in Contract 04. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risks of MSK's cabin opening, geopolitical sentiment fluctuations, and the rush actions of the photovoltaic industry chain; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the support of spot - end cargo volume and whether shipping companies issue price increase notices [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The SCFIS European line index has had a slow decline for two consecutive periods. The main contract 04 reached a maximum of 1397 points, with a gain of 6.8% and an increase of over 8000 lots in positions. As of the close, the open interest rose to 34,500 lots. Contract 05 closed at 1479 points, up 12.6%, with an increase of 122 lots in positions. Contract 06 closed at 1691.6 points, up 6.1%, with an increase of 1897 lots in positions, and the open interest rose to 15,800 lots [2] Spot Market Freight Rates - As of 16:00, according to Geek Rate online freight rates, MSK's early - March price rose to $1950/FEU after the cabin opening, remaining the same as the previous day. HPL's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate in late February was $2035/FEU, and the March price was $3135/FEU. Ocean carriers' 3 - month freight rates varied, with OOCL at $3030 - 3130/FEU, CMA's first - half - month March freight rate in the range of $2293 - 2493/FEU and the second - half - month rate dropping from a high of $3993/FEU to $2793/FEU, EMC at $3030 - 3130/FEU, ONE at $3035/FEU, and MSC's March price at $2340/FEU, a $200 increase compared to February [3] Geopolitical Situation - Trump signaled a缓和 in the US - Iran situation, preferring an agreement over war. Netanyahu of Israel threatened Iran, saying that if Iran attacks Israel due to US military strikes, it will face "unimaginable" retaliation [3] Trade Situation - The US has stopped collecting certain tariffs but imposed a 10% import surcharge under Section 122. China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate US measures, and will decide on counter - measures against US fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs. China opposes unilateral tariff measures and hopes to conduct candid consultations with the US in the upcoming 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations [4] Red Sea Navigation Situation - The EU announced on the 23rd that it would extend the Red Sea escort operation for one year until February 28, 2027, to maintain "freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and surrounding waters" [4]