碳酸锂日报-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - On February 24, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 10.56% to 164,120 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8,250 yuan/ton to 152,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 8,250 yuan/ton to 148,500 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 7,000 yuan/ton to 144,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 96 tons to 38,855 tons [3]. - On February 19, 2026, driven by the market recovery, PLS announced that it would restart the Ngungaju lithium mine plant in Pilgangoora, Western Australia (with an annual capacity of approximately 200,000 tons) in July this year and had fully initiated the approximately four - month restart preparation work. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security", and the proposed tariffs may cover large - scale batteries, cast iron and iron - made accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment [3]. - In February, the lithium carbonate production is expected to decrease by 16.3% month - on - month to 81,930 tons, with a decline in lithium extraction from all raw materials. In terms of demand, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, inventory in other links decreasing by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 647 tons to 18,356 tons [3]. - Affected by the downstream production schedule expectations and export rumors from Africa, the price of lithium carbonate rose significantly on the first trading day after the Spring Festival. Based on the February production schedule, the short - term inventory level may continue to decline, which may be a significant positive support. However, the shipping data from Chile in January increased significantly month - on - month. Although the volume is unsustainable, the significant supply pressure on the domestic market may gradually emerge. At the same time, domestic production will gradually resume in March, and the pressure will then depend on whether there can be an unexpected situation on the demand side [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Price Changes: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory also rose [3]. - News: PLS plans to restart the lithium mine plant, and the US government may impose new tariffs [3]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Supply and demand both decreased in February, and the social inventory decreased [3]. - Market Outlook: Short - term inventory decline may support prices, but there are supply - side pressures in the future [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Price Changes: Most products in the lithium - battery industrial chain showed price increases, while some remained stable, such as the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate and some ternary precursors [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - bearing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide during 2024 - 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price Spreads: Display the price spreads of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][22]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium - Battery Prices: Present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Display the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 26, 2025, to February 12, 2026 [36][38]. - Production Costs: Show the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from January 2024 to February 2026 [41].