软商品日报-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.55% to close at 65.5 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 3.8% to close at 15,285 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest increasing by 92,446 lots to 759,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,205 yuan per ton, up 415 yuan per ton from the previous day. The main drivers for the increase of Zhengzhou cotton are: during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, the price of ICE U.S. cotton futures rose by more than 2%; the USDA's February Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted that the inventory-to-sales ratios of global, U.S., and Chinese cotton in the 2026/27 season will all decline year-on-year; there are expectations of a reduction in domestic planting area and target price policy. In the short term, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral market, but in the medium and long term, there is a certain upside space for both domestic and international cotton prices [2]. - For sugar, as of February 15, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons or 6.57% compared with the same period last year. The sugar content of sugarcane was 12.53%, an increase of 0.16% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 10.77%, an increase of 0.197% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons or 4.83% compared with the same period last year. The spot quotes of sugar are stable. The raw sugar price is strong due to the U.S. tariff issue. In the future, the market will focus on the final production in the Northern Hemisphere and the estimated production in the new Brazilian sugar season. Under the background of a bumper harvest, the upside of sugar prices is limited. In China, sugar mills are still in the peak inventory accumulation period and the consumption is in the off - season, so the market lacks drivers and will remain volatile [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 115; the main contract basis is 785, with a month - on - month decrease of 594. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,789 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan; the national spot price is 16,070 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 11, with a month - on - month decrease of 5; the main contract basis is 121, with a month - on - month decrease of 18. The spot price in Nanning is 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On February 24, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,013, an increase of 12 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1,141 [4]. - On February 24, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions of China were: 15,789 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,179 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,113 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,203 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On February 24, the comprehensive load of yarn was 32.9, an increase of 22 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.5, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 23.9, an increase of 12.7 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.8, an increase of 0.1 from the previous day [4]. - On February 24, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. - On February 24, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 717 [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar [7][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][18].