中原期货周报：终端需求尚未启动，原料短时承压-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand has not started yet, and raw materials are under short - term pressure. The iron ore and coking coal and coke markets are both showing a weak - running trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in molten iron [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the raw material market showed a slight decline. Iron ore prices dropped, while the spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable with light trading volume. The finished products had a seasonal inventory build - up, and the raw material restocking ended. The market was waiting for post - holiday guidance. For example, the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) in Qingdao Port increased by 11 yuan/ton to 756 yuan/wet ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The iron ore shipment decreased by 22.70% month - on - month and 29.65% year - on - year, reaching 1948.8 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.98% month - on - month but increased by 2.36% year - on - year, reaching 2152.4 tons [16] - Demand: The daily output of molten iron increased by 1.91 tons month - on - month and 2.98 tons year - on - year, reaching 230.49 tons. The port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.96% month - on - month and 17.98% year - on - year, reaching 351.19 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 37.49 days, increasing by 2.57% month - on - month and 15.75% year - on - year [21] - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 1.13% month - on - month but increased by 11.33% year - on - year, reaching 16946.32 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 3.75% month - on - month and 16.72% year - on - year, reaching 10703.93 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises decreased by 1.41% month - on - month but increased by 24.55% year - on - year, reaching 30.85 days [26] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The coking coal mine operating rate decreased by 2.76% month - on - month but increased by 4.17% year - on - year, reaching 86.67%. The daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased by 34.88% month - on - month and 24.67% year - on - year, reaching 10.06 tons. The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants decreased by 9.17% month - on - month and 3.18% year - on - year, reaching 32.28% [31] - Coking Enterprises: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants increased by 2 yuan/ton month - on - month and 63 yuan/ton year - on - year, reaching - 8 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants decreased by 0.06% month - on - month but increased by 0.73% year - on - year, reaching 72.89%. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke remained stable month - on - month but decreased by 0.30% year - on - year, reaching 86.33% [38] - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 2.22% year - on - year, reaching 1036.09 tons. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.38% month - on - month but decreased by 3.99% year - on - year, reaching 814.12 tons. The coking coal port inventory decreased by 1.04% month - on - month and 36.82% year - on - year, reaching 286.38 tons [44] - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased by 26.90% month - on - month but decreased by 45.92% year - on - year, reaching 55.52 tons. The coke inventory of steel mills decreased by 1.33% month - on - month but increased by 1.35% year - on - year, reaching 688.61 tons. The coke port inventory decreased by 2.70% month - on - month but increased by 3.08% year - on - year, reaching 199.06 tons [49] - Spot Price: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi remained stable week - on - week but increased by 210 yuan/ton year - on - year, reaching 1570 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan remained stable month - on - month but increased by 30 yuan/ton year - on - year, reaching 1390 yuan/ton [52] 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar slightly narrowed, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 also slightly narrowed [54]