周期板块点评：周期资源品配置正当时

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current environment is favorable for allocating resources in cyclical sectors, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, due to rising overseas uncertainties and the expected resumption of domestic activities after the Spring Festival [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The cyclical sector performed well, with significant gains in industries such as oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policy uncertainties, and domestic supply-demand expectations [2]. - The escalation of the U.S.-Iran situation has led to rising oil prices, with global crude oil prices reaching a six-month high during the Spring Festival, positively impacting the domestic oil and petrochemical sector [2]. - Uncertainties surrounding tariffs have provided strong support for precious metal prices, with international gold prices continuing to rise amid renewed global trade uncertainties [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints and Price Expectations - Coal prices are expected to recover due to supply constraints, with domestic coal inventories at major ports dropping to low levels and signals of reduced coal supply from Indonesia, which may create price space for domestic coal [2]. - The resumption of work after the Spring Festival is anticipated to boost demand expectations, further supporting coal prices [2]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The report reiterates that the first quarter is a critical time for resource allocation, with the recent rise in overseas uncertainties likely to catalyze a new round of resource price movements [2]. - The evolution of the U.S.-Iran situation will be a significant factor influencing oil and precious metal prices, while the restart of U.S. trade policy uncertainties may provide strong support for precious metals [2]. - Domestic construction activity and macroeconomic policy developments ahead of the Two Sessions will significantly impact the sustainability of the coal sector and other domestic resource prices [2].