黑色建材日报：产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is facing accumulated contradictions and weakening cost support, with steel prices under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory and weak demand [1] - Iron ore has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, high - level inventory for a long time, and faces downward pressure in the short - term [3] - Coking coal and coke futures and spot prices are running weakly, and the future trend depends on factors such as downstream production resumption and cost [6] - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of thermal coal are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating, with a long - term pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The steel futures market weakened yesterday, with the rebar futures main contract closing at 3027 yuan/ton, down 0.92%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closing at 3195 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The spot market was stable, with few quotes due to the lack of obvious construction starts in downstream areas [1] - Supply - Demand Logic: The steel industry is in a situation of stable supply and weak demand, with continuous accumulation of contradictions, a significant increase in inventory, and steel prices under pressure. The supply pressure of plates remains, and demand continues to weaken seasonally. The inventory of the five major steel products is still increasing, and steel prices will follow the cost in the short - term [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore price oscillated slightly downward yesterday. On February 24, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly compared with the previous working day. The trading volume in the spot market was cold, with a cumulative transaction of 40.5 tons on February 24, and the average daily transaction this month was 55.7 tons, a 40.62% decrease from the previous period [2] - Supply - Demand Logic: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 23.5% this period, with Australia's shipment volume increasing by 36.7% and Brazil's by 9%. The arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2152 tons, a 11% decrease, and at 47 ports was 2321.1 tons, a 7% decrease. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is still at a historical high. Before the Spring Festival, the molten iron output increased slightly, and after the steel mills completed restocking, the speculative demand declined. The port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased significantly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the coke main contract closed at 1634.5 yuan/ton, down 38.5 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decrease; the coking coal main contract closed at 1101.5 yuan/ton, down 18.5 yuan/ton, a 1.65% decrease. Coke spot prices are stable to weak. During the Spring Festival, coke enterprises produced normally, but due to poor logistics and sufficient downstream inventory, the shipment was slow, and the factory inventory accumulated while the raw coal inventory decreased. The market still has a downward expectation after the festival. Coking coal supply decreased during the Spring Festival, and the speculative demand weakened. After the festival, the supply and demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines determines the supply - demand pattern [6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In terms of spot and futures, the coal prices in the main production areas are oscillating. Recently, some coal mines have gradually resumed production and sales, and the supply has slowly increased. The terminal procurement is small, and the overall demand has not been significantly boosted. At the port, the market continues to be strong, with low inventory. The import market is stable to strong, and the future import volume is expected to decrease [7] - Supply - Demand Logic: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose [7] - Strategy: No strategy is provided [7]