成本支撑增强，关注节后下游补库节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for propylene has increased, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream industries after the holiday. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, but the actual return of major PDH plants under the current profit pressure needs to be monitored. The demand may face pressure due to high propylene prices and compressed profits. The cost side is strongly supported by the rising international oil prices and propane prices. The future trends will be mainly driven by the cost of crude oil and propane, the maintenance of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production follow - up under cost pressure [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the 03 - 04 contract spread, the PL03 - 05 contract spread, and the market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][9][16]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [22][27][30]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - This part covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][47]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - It includes the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [63][64]. 4. Market News and Important Data 4.1 Propylene - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6344 yuan/ton (+226), the East China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (+120), the North China spot price is 6525 yuan/ton (+80), the East China basis is 206 yuan/ton (-106), the Shandong basis is 181 yuan/ton (-146), the capacity utilization is 73% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 221 US dollars/ton (-10), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 81 US dollars/ton (-3), the import profit is - 383 yuan/ton (+5), and the in - plant inventory is 45170 tons (+1840) [2]. 4.2 Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization of PP powder is 22% (-3.94%), and the production profit is - 275 yuan/ton (-30); the capacity utilization of propylene oxide is 80% (+8%), and the production profit is - 2 yuan/ton (+140); the capacity utilization of n - butanol is 88% (+2%), and the production profit is 393 yuan/ton (+151); the capacity utilization of octanol is 99% (+4%), and the production profit is - 70 yuan/ton (-58); the capacity utilization of acrylic acid is 86% (+2%), and the production profit is 200 yuan/ton (-35); the capacity utilization of acrylonitrile is 75% (+3%), and the production profit is - 1344 yuan/ton (-92); the capacity utilization of phenol - acetone is 89% (+0%), and the production profit is - 834 yuan/ton (-118) [2]. 5. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [4].