节后成交较好

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with a sideways trend [3] - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when the price is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the trading volume was good. The manufacturers had no pressure in receiving orders during the Spring Festival, and the prices remained stable. In the later stage of the festival, some agricultural demand started. It is expected that the spot price in February will remain stable for the time being. The supply will increase as some gas - based and technological - reformed enterprises resume production, and 10% of the off - season reserve goods will be released in February. After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers will gradually start, the compound fertilizer plants will resume production, the melamine plants will increase their operating rates, and the overall inventory in urea plants will decrease while the port inventory will slightly increase. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender, and the domestic export quota has no new news. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 24, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1855 yuan/ton (+22). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1830 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1850 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu was 1850 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 5 yuan/ton (+18), in Henan was - 25 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 90.59% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 285 yuan/ton (+40), and the export profit was 1175 yuan/ton (+126) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intended volume of 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast). The tender was opened on February 18, valid until February 28, and the latest shipping date was March 31. A total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast was CFR 508 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.50% (- 11.69%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.17% (+3.40), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1]