油价上涨抬升成本，聚烯烃偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has led to a continuous rise in international oil prices, significantly boosting the cost support for polyolefins and driving up the prices on the trading floor. However, subsequent statements from Trump indicate a tendency towards negotiation, and further developments in the situation should be monitored [3]. - For PE, the supply side is facing pressure as there are many short - term restarting plants before the Spring Festival, the operating rate remains high, and the planned maintenance in the later first quarter is limited with an increase in the production of standard products. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season during the Spring Festival, and most downstream enterprises will resume work around the Lantern Festival. The inventory of upstream enterprises has accumulated as expected after the festival, and the over - sold situation before the festival has partially alleviated the supply pressure. Overall, the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation persists, and the short - term cost support is strong, so attention should be paid to the inventory clearance rhythm of the upstream and mid - stream after the festival [3]. - For PP, geopolitical disturbances have pushed up oil prices, and the price of propane in the external market has also risen. The cost support for oil - based and PDH - based PP production has increased. On the supply side, although the PDH profit has slightly recovered, it is still in a deep loss state, and some PDH - based PP plants are under maintenance, so the overall operating rate has limited increase, and the upstream enterprises have accumulated inventory seasonally. On the demand side, it is a seasonal off - season during the Spring Festival, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and BOPP have continued to decline, and most terminal downstream enterprises will start work after the Lantern Festival, with a general restocking rhythm. Currently, there is still support on the supply side during the demand off - season, and the short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the inventory clearance rhythm of the upstream and mid - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,820 yuan/ton (+176), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,746 yuan/ton (+178). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,650 yuan/ton (+180), in East China is 6,780 yuan/ton (+80), and the spot price of PP in East China is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is - 170 yuan/ton (+4), in East China is - 40 yuan/ton (-96), and the basis of PP in East China is - 66 yuan/ton (-178) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 88.4% (+1.1%), and the operating rate of PP is 75.8% (-0.1%). The production profit of PE from oil is - 85.7 yuan/ton (-13.5), the production profit of PP from oil is - 345.7 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the production profit of PP from PDH is - 451.3 yuan/ton (+49.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profit of LL is - 104.6 yuan/ton (+4.5), the import profit of PP is - 249.3 yuan/ton (+4.6), and the export profit of PP is - 54.3 US dollars/ton (-0.6) [2]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 24.7% (-5.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 20.3% (+0.0%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 24.1% (-3.8%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 42.8% (-17.5%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: Cautiously shrink the L - PP price difference when it is high [5].