供需仍待恢复，价格维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range-bound oscillations. With significant contraction on the supply side, there is obvious price support, but high inventories of polysilicon always suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. In the context of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories after the Spring Festival and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side contracted significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains sluggish due to downstream cost constraints, and the large inventory is being depleted slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we are waiting for the supply - demand game. After the Spring Festival, silicon wafer enterprises resumed work, but inventory pressure still exists, and the recent sharp rise in international silver prices has increased the cost pressure on battery manufacturers. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand recovery after the Spring Festival, and in the medium - to - long term, the trend of silver prices and the progress of inventory depletion need to be monitored [3][5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 24, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,475 yuan/ton and closed at 8,410 yuan/ton, a change of 45 yuan/ton (0.54%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 293,851 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 23, 2026, was 19,977 lots, a change of 456 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 12 was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 0.89% from the previous week [1]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and after the festival, most inquiries were tentative [1]. - The supply side contracted in tandem with the demand side. Large factories cut production, and the marginal output in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On February 24, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 48,505 yuan/ton and closing at 47,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.03% in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37,729 lots (36,844 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 8,503 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.50 - 57.50 yuan/kg (- 0.25 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (0.00 yuan/kg) [3]. - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventories increased, and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics show that polysilicon inventory was 349,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 2.30%, silicon wafer inventory was 30.06 GW, a month - on - month change of 6.14%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 20,100 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 10.05 GW, a month - on - month change of - 3.18% [3][4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.13 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.43 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 yuan/piece [4]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W); the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [4]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a small - scale oscillation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3][5][6] Project Information - Recently, the Quzhou Ecological Environment Bureau released a public notice on the proposed approval of the environmental impact report of the annual production project of 30,800 tons of high - performance silicone adhesive new materials by Zhejiang Yonggao New Materials Co., Ltd. The project will add 50 mu of land, with a total investment of 326 million yuan. It will produce 7,000 tons of hard board glue, 500 tons of MQ silicone resin, 20,000 tons of high - temperature - resistant electronic glue, 300 tons of silicone optical glue, and 3,000 tons of silicone pressure - sensitive glue annually, with annual by - products of 2,000 tons of hydrochloric acid and 400 tons of sodium chloride [2].