新能源及有色金属日报：春节期间外盘走高，节后内盘跟随走势-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to the supply contraction expectation of nickel ore affected by Indonesian policies and the rainy season, combined with macro - factors, nickel prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - trading [1][3] - For the stainless - steel variety, influenced by the macro - economic interest - rate cut expectation and cost - side nickel price support, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, but also restricted by high inventory and weak demand, with a range - trading strategy [3][4] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main nickel contract 2603 opened at 135,500 yuan/ton and closed at 137,950 yuan/ton, a 1.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,057 (-246,471) lots, and the open interest was 52,788 (-5,370) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening low and rising high, with the price rising rapidly after the opening, reaching a high of 138,970 yuan during the session, and finally closing with a long - upper - shadow medium阳线. The trading volume increased compared to before the holiday. The short - term decline of the US dollar index and the supply disturbance of Indonesian nickel ore supported the nickel price [1] Nickel Ore - After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market gradually recovered. The Indonesian market had a slight correction due to the benchmark price adjustment, while the price of imported Philippine ore continued to rise, and the domestic market was mainly in a wait - and - see state [1] Spot - On the first trading day after the holiday, nickel prices were strong. Traders' quotes were scattered. The spot of Jinchuan resources in East China was tight, but the premium of the ex - factory price to Shanghai nickel decreased. Some merchants sold at a low premium, and the transaction center shifted down. The premiums of other brands of electrowon nickel were generally stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 51,924 (-534) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 287,328 (-378) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Supply - side nickel ore is expected to remain in a contraction state, and nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Group 5: Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main stainless - steel contract 2604 opened at 13,900 yuan/ton and closed at 14,085 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 69,117 (-62,780) lots, and the open interest was 89,926 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and rising high, reaching an intraday high of 14,220 yuan, and finally closing with a long - upper - shadow medium阳线. The trading volume increased compared to before the holiday, and the participation of funds increased. The supply disturbance of Indonesian nickel ore and the rise of nickel prices increased the production cost of stainless steel, and the rise of LME nickel also boosted the confidence of stainless - steel futures bulls [3] Spot - On the first trading day after the holiday, some traders were still on vacation, and the actual trading was light. The spot price followed the futures price increase, and the market confidence was positive. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,200 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,150 (+100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 to 345 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Group 6: Stainless - Steel Variety Strategy - Affected by the macro - economic interest - rate cut expectation and cost - side nickel price support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]