氧化铝供给扰动累库幅度放缓

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [9] 2. Core View - Overseas uncertainties in the electrolytic aluminum market remain. Domestically, the supply - demand balance is testing price transmission and post - holiday consumption recovery. Long - term macro - economic factors are positive, and there may be arbitrage opportunities between aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - In the alumina market, supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts in northern plants, and there is a possibility of a short - term supply pressure relief in the domestic spot market [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23390 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23310 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 40 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23470 yuan/ton, with a change of 260 yuan/ton. The spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opens at 23440 yuan/ton, closes at 23550 yuan/ton, with a change of 175 yuan/ton. The highest price is 23700 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 23400 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 118216 lots, and the open interest is 127637 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of February 24, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 110.8 million tons, with a change of 21.6 million tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 282599 tons, with a change of 80204 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 471550 tons, with a change of - 2000 tons [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On February 24, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2610 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2555 yuan/ton, Henan is 2635 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2670 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2740 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 311 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main alumina futures contract opens at 2913 yuan/ton, closes at 2829 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton (0.21% change). The highest price is 2913 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 2811 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 252117 lots, and the open interest is 286192 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 24, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price is 17400 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price is 17800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation is 23200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory is 6.77 million tons, and the in - factory inventory is 9.35 million tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 22468 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 632 yuan/ton [5].