假期累库明显，钢价承压回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price is under pressure and weak in the short - term due to the significant inventory build - up during the holiday, with production and demand of rebar both decreasing (demand dropping more significantly), and the demand for hot - rolled coils also falling while production remains stable. In the medium - term, the steel price is expected to first fall and then rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the last week before the holiday, the spot market was inactive with most quotes stable. The fundamentals showed seasonal inventory build - up, demand gradually stagnated, futures funds were eager to leave the market, prices declined overall, and the basis widened [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton with no change; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 11 yuan/wet ton to 756 yuan/wet ton. Rebar total inventory increased by 129 tons to 716.04 tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 63 tons to 433.85 tons [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Rebar weekly production was 170.38 tons (a 4.08% decrease from the previous week and a 4.29% increase year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 309.81 tons (a 0.67% increase from the previous week and a 5.50% decrease year - on - year) [3][15]. - Rebar blast furnace production increased while electric furnace production decreased. Blast furnace weekly production was 167.78 tons (a 3.85% increase from the previous week and a 3.94% decrease year - on - year), and electric furnace weekly production was 2.6 tons (a 65.79% decrease from the previous week and an 88.31% decrease year - on - year) [16][18]. - The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate during the holiday dropped significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.13% (a 0.75% increase from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 9.85% (a 65.15% decrease from the previous week and an 81.57% decrease year - on - year) [19][23]. - The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils were slightly repaired. Rebar profit was + 80 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 15 - yuan decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 11 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 4 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils dropped significantly during the holiday. Rebar apparent consumption was 41.16 tons (a 59.61% decrease from the previous week and a 75.59% decrease year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (a 51.40% decrease from the previous week and a 68.52% decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 246.73 tons (a 16.70% decrease from the previous week and a 23.58% decrease year - on - year) [31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased seasonally, with the increase in factory and social inventories expanding. Rebar factory inventory was 221.07 tons (a 35.14% increase from the previous week and a 7.73% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 494.97 tons (a 16.95% increase from the previous week and an 18.90% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 716.04 tons (a 22.02% increase from the previous week and a 15.53% decrease year - on - year) [32][36]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, and social inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 93.38 tons (a 16.94% increase from the previous week and a 1.00% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 340.47 tons (a 17.03% increase from the previous week and a 1.01% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 433.85 tons (a 17.01% increase from the previous week and a 0.17% decrease year - on - year) [37][40]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate industry, due to holiday factors, the transactions in the commercial housing and land markets decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.46% week - on - week and 94.56% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 99.33% week - on - week and 99.32% year - on - year [41][43]. - In the automotive industry, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year, while sales decreased year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, a 44.9% increase year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle exports were 302,000, a 100% increase year - on - year [44][46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened slightly [48]. - The coil - to - rebar spread contracted slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [53].