贵金属日报：关税推动市场避险情绪，贵金属行情未歇-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating for precious metals: Cautiously bullish for both gold and silver, recommend shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels and suspending options trading [8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Tariffs and geopolitical factors have increased market risk aversion, and the precious metals market is expected to continue [1] - Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram; silver prices are also expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 22,000 yuan/kg and 23,000 yuan/kg [8][9] Group 3: Market Analysis - The US has officially imposed a 10% global tariff and is preparing to raise it to 15%. There are also plans to impose new tariffs on six industries on "national security" grounds, which has significantly increased market risk aversion [1] - The US and Iran may resume negotiations, with the US preferring diplomacy but willing to use force if necessary, and Iran determined to reach a fair agreement [1] Group 4: Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 24, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,160.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,150.50 yuan/gram, a change of 3.64% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,148.14 yuan/gram, a 0.21% drop from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 22,353.00 yuan/kg, closed at 22,327.00 yuan/kg, a change of 12.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 210,732 lots, and the open interest was 175,097 lots. The night session closed at 22,179 yuan/kg, a 0.66% drop from the afternoon close [2] Group 5: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 24, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.031%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.591, also unchanged [3] Group 6: Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 4,380 lots, and the short positions changed by 298 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 176,958 lots, a 24.10% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -3,704 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 513,518 lots, a 22.21% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 7: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,086.47 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,830 tons, an increase of 312 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 8: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 24, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -13.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 362.22 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 51.53, a 2.78% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.21, a -2.63% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 9: Fundamental Analysis - On February 24, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 27,306 kg, a 77.16% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 200,612 kg, a 38.43% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7]