PVC节后累库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. With the recovery of downstream operations, the expected increase in spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations, the market is expected to gradually improve [3]. - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. Although the cost support has weakened, the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve as downstream operations resume and restocking demand is released [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,948 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis was - 218 yuan/ton (-43), and the South China basis was - 118 yuan/ton (-53) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (-165), the calcium carbide profit was - 98 yuan/ton (-165), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method was - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method was 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit was 16.3 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social PVC inventory was 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method was 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method was 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 80.48% (+1.86%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 1,970 yuan/ton (-45), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 39 yuan/ton (+95) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 618 yuan/ton (+13), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,000 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 915 yuan/ton (+41), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 113.5 yuan/ton (+200.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was - 238.46 yuan/ton (+271.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 44.29 tons (+0.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the caustic soda operation rate was 85.60% (-2.00%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina was 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.15%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to strong export orders, but the export orders declined before the festival. The upstream inventory pressure was not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remained weak, with sufficient domestic supply and an expected increase in spring maintenance in April. The downstream operation rate decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover after the festival. The social inventory increased after the festival and was at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price decreased, and the semi - coke price was stable. The semi - coke profit was still in a loss. The PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and there was still pressure on the futures market for hedging. Although the supply - demand was weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supported the spot, and the market expected the long - term cost of PVC to increase. With the valuation repair of the chemical industry, the market expectation for PVC was strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operations will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. As the downstream operations recover, the expectation of spring maintenance increases, and the macro - expectations strengthen, the market is expected to improve [3]. Caustic Soda - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The subsidy for liquid chlorine during the festival decreased, and the cost support weakened compared with before the festival. Some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production, and the supply decreased slightly. The low - price spot before the festival stimulated the stocking sentiment, and the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. The demand side had a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants were under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. The anti - involution of alumina led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market's purchasing power for caustic soda was insufficient. There was some purchasing demand after the festival. The non - aluminum operation rate decreased before the festival, and the purchasing behavior during the Spring Festival weakened. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. Currently, the caustic soda warehouse receipts suppressed the futures market, but the market purchasing sentiment is expected to improve as the downstream operations resume and the restocking demand is released [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream purchasing sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]