A股马年开门红，关注特朗普国情咨文演讲

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-shares had a good start in the Year of the Horse, and attention should be paid to Trump's State of the Union address [2] - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonal characteristics, with a high probability of rising in the first month after the Spring Festival, especially the CSI 1000 (IM) [3] - There are opportunities for bargain - hunting allocation in commodity sectors after the festival [4] - The strategy is to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - During the Chinese Spring Festival, overseas geopolitical risks were high, including the Iran - US situation and the US "reciprocal tariff" issue [2] - Trump may launch military strikes against Iran and has adjusted tariff policies, which has affected global trade and inflation [2] - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was lower than expected, and the February PMI was under pressure, while China's January social financing had a good start, and the LPR remained unchanged [2][3] - On February 24, A - share indices rose, resource stocks soared, and the on - shore RMB appreciated [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain, and the certainty is high; precious metals have allocation value again after adjustment [4] - In the energy sector, attention should be paid to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation, and there are risks of "selling on the news" and long - term threats from Venezuela's production increase [4] - In the chemical sector, some varieties are relatively resistant to decline [4] - For agricultural products, weather expectations and short - term pig diseases need to be monitored; for the black sector, domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair possibilities should be focused on [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] Important News - The next round of US - Iran negotiations will be held on the 26th in Geneva [6] - Trump may launch military strikes against Iran [6] - China's February LPR remained unchanged [6] - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on February 25 [6] - The European Parliament suspended the approval process of the EU - US trade agreement [6] - Trump's new 10% global tariff took effect, and there are plans to raise it to 15% [6] - The US may impose new tariffs on about six industries [6] - The US will stop collecting the illegal tariff, and the Democrats will oppose its extension [6]