BOHAI SECURITIES·2026-02-25 06:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. It also maintains an "Accumulate" rating for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [11]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to slowly recover post-holiday, with attention on actual demand recovery, raw material price trends, and macroeconomic news impacting steel prices [22][4]. - Copper prices are anticipated to remain high and fluctuate due to strong demand expectations from sectors like new energy and AI, despite a slow recovery in demand post-holiday [42][4]. - The aluminum sector is facing average fundamentals, with macroeconomic sentiment significantly influencing aluminum prices; actual demand recovery and macro news are key areas to watch [51][4]. - Gold prices may find support due to rising geopolitical risks, while long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar will enhance gold's attractiveness [57][4]. - The rare earth sector is expected to maintain high prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide due to ongoing supply shortages [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel - The total production of five major steel products decreased due to most electric furnace enterprises halting production for the holiday, leading to an increase in inventory [22][24]. - As of February 13, the total steel inventory was 14.39 million tons, a 7.44% increase from February 6, but a 20.56% decrease year-on-year [30][41]. - The average price index for steel on February 13 was 3,409.51 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.14% decrease from February 6 [40][41]. Copper - Copper inventory is on an upward trend, with the overall industry maintaining a weak operational pattern; however, market activity is expected to gradually recover post-holiday [42][49]. - On February 13, the LME copper spot price was 12,700 USD/ton, and the SHFE copper spot price was 100,400 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -0.94% and +0.24% from February 6 [49][49]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain low post-holiday, with domestic inventory likely to continue increasing in the short term [51][52]. - On February 13, the LME aluminum spot price was 3,000 USD/ton, and the SHFE aluminum spot price was 23,200 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.61% and an increase of 0.09% respectively from February 6 [52][52]. Gold - Geopolitical risks and US economic data are significant factors influencing gold prices, with the COMEX gold closing at 5,063.80 USD/ounce on February 13, a 1.51% increase from February 6 [57][57]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide remains tight, supporting high prices in the short term [3][4].