——2025年信用债违约年鉴：违约率持续走低，关注地产产业链

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers and the scale of defaulted bonds decreased significantly. The default of state - owned enterprises came to an end, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed. The scale of default repayment increased, but most real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [1][6][7]. - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The net financing scale of non - state - owned enterprises turned positive for the first time since 2018. Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5% [3][19][20]. - Looking forward to 2026, the policy bottom - line is to prevent systemic risks. The overall credit risk is relatively controllable, but the operating pressure of some tail - end entities in certain industries remains, and default risks are still worthy of attention [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - Newly - defaulted issuers and bond scale: The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers in 2025 decreased to 4, with 3 from the real - estate industry and its upstream and downstream chains. The scale of defaulted bonds continued to decline, and the extended - term part due to the continuous exposure of default risks from 2022 - 2023 ended by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - Enterprise nature: State - owned enterprise defaults ended in 2025, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed, especially those in the real - estate industry chain that had not defaulted during the previous strict regulatory period [7]. - Default repayment: In 2025, there were 118 cases of default bond repayments, with a total principal repayment of 14.3 billion yuan and interest of 639 million yuan. The real - estate industry repaid 12.1 billion yuan in principal, and 11 out of 17 real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [7]. 3.2 Default Analysis: Continuous Exposure of Broad - sense Private Enterprises and Slight Decline in Cumulative Default Rate 3.2.1 Default Overview - The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers decreased to 4 in 2025, all non - state - owned. The total outstanding bonds of defaulted issuers increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the extension of Vanke's large - scale bonds. The scale of defaulted bonds decreased by 67% year - on - year [11]. - Industry - wide, since 2014, credit bond default issuers have been widely distributed across 29 Shenwan industries, and in 2025, they were mainly in real estate, building decoration, and power equipment. Regionally, since 2014, default issuers have covered most provinces, and in 2025, they were in Guangdong and Zhejiang [14]. 3.2.2 Default Rate - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The non - state - owned net financing scale turned positive for the first time since 2018 to 24.3 billion yuan [19]. - Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5%, with real estate and commercial trade having relatively high default scales, and electrical equipment and textile and clothing having relatively low total bond - issuing scales [20]. 3.2.3 Default Reasons - Macroeconomic policies and market environment continuously affected the credit risks of entities. Entities like Xinjie Holdings, Zhengxinglong Real Estate, and Vanke were greatly affected by the previous strict real - estate regulatory policies, while Shanshan Group's poor performance was due to industry cycle changes [3][25]. 3.3 Default Recovery Situation - The cumulative recovery rate and recovery time of defaulted credit bonds have been decreasing year by year. Since 2020, the annual default recovery rate has been less than 20%, and the average recovery time is within two years, with the decline narrowing in 2025 [30]. - As of 2025, the cumulative default recovery rate of state - owned enterprises was 25.12%, 13 percentage points higher than that of non - state - owned enterprises, and the gap remained basically the same as the previous year [33]. - In 2025, real - estate bond repayments still dominated. The total principal repayment of defaulted bonds was 14.3 billion yuan, with the real - estate industry repaying 12.1 billion yuan. Sunac repaid 9.5 billion yuan in principal, and Shanshan Group among the newly - defaulted issuers in 2025 repaid 267 million yuan in principal [37].