华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend short allocation for iron ore [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term macro expectations are weak, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply remains high year - on - year, and iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits. It is recommended to mainly short - allocate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with a significant rebound in this week's shipments, and the current overseas ore shipment level is higher than the same period in the past five years. The supply of domestic ore is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipment stage, and the supply - side support is insufficient [3] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on steel mill profit levels and the degree of steel inventory reduction. Due to the relatively high temperature this year, construction site starts may be advanced, and the market still has some optimistic expectations for demand. In the short term, the probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the intensity of resumption of work. According to seasonal rules, molten iron has entered a recovery cycle, and later more attention should be paid to the recovery speed and height. From the current steel mill profit level and demand expectations, the recovery speed remains relatively gentle [3] Inventory - Steel mills still have restocking needs after the Spring Festival, but the intensity and sustainability of restocking still depend on the recovery of terminal demand. From the current port clearance level, port inventories will still be in an accumulation state. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the short - term port inventory accumulation pressure will remain high. At the same time, pay attention to the potential selling risk of trade - restricted inventories [3] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to Dalian iron ore futures at 710 - 760 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4] Later Concerns - Macro policy increments, implementation intensity of industrial policies, and the speed of supply weakening [4]