Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-02-25 07:32Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) based on the recovery of new business growth, reduced interest rate sensitivity, and prudent actuarial assumptions [5][30]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of Chinese insurance companies is expected to improve, drawing comparisons with AIA Group's strong performance since its listing. AIA's embedded value (PEV) multiple was approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating high growth potential and lower sensitivity to interest rates, which could benefit the valuation of Chinese insurers [5][6]. - The new business value (NBV) of Chinese life insurance companies is recovering rapidly, driven by improved distribution channels and product offerings, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [5][13]. - Effective asset-liability duration management and the transformation towards participating insurance have reduced the sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates, which is favorable for valuation [15][17]. - Prudent adjustments to actuarial assumptions have brought Chinese insurers' assumptions closer to those of AIA, enhancing the credibility of their valuations [22][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AIA's Performance and Valuation - AIA has shown strong stock performance since its listing, with a PEV multiple of approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for valuation improvements in Chinese insurers [5][6]. Section 2: Recovery of New Business and Growth Indicators - Chinese life insurance companies are experiencing a rapid recovery in new business growth, with NBV for AIA increasing by 18% year-on-year to USD 4.314 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The NBV for 2024 was approximately 113% of the 2019 figure, indicating strong growth potential [8][13]. - Major Chinese insurers are expected to see NBV growth of 30%-80% in 2025, with positive growth in CSM for China Life and Ping An in the first half of 2025 [13][18]. Section 3: Interest Rate Sensitivity and Actuarial Assumptions - The sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates has decreased due to effective duration management and a successful shift towards participating insurance. For instance, AIA's NBV only decreased by 1.9% with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates [15][17]. - Chinese insurers have made prudent adjustments to their actuarial assumptions, aligning them more closely with AIA's, which enhances the reliability of their valuations. For example, China Life's investment return assumption has been adjusted to 4% from 5% [22][30].