供应担忧仍存，锡价大幅上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short - term, with supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with an estimated price range of 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to focus on the low - buying and long - position strategy. - In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in major producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease slightly but remain in a tight - balance state, with high supply risks and high - level price fluctuations. - In the long - term, with limited growth in ore supply and strong demand, the tin price center is expected to show an upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 25, 2026, tin prices rose significantly. By noon, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures rose 6.09% to 4,102.07 yuan per ton. The reasons are supply concerns and positive market sentiment. - Indonesia is studying a ban on the export of various raw materials including tin in the coming years, which intensifies long - term supply concerns. - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the security situation in the east is severe, and local tin ore supply is at risk of disruption [3]. Fundamental Situation - The domestic tin ore supply is tight, which restricts refined tin production. As of February 13, the processing fees for 60% and 40% grade tin ores are 10,000 yuan/ton and 14,000 yuan/ton respectively, remaining at a relatively low level. - In January, domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%. The operating rate of domestic tin smelters was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. - Recently, the visible tin inventory has increased. As of February 23, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,781 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,655 tons [4].