弘业期货原周报：现货休市，海外价格上调-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The log market was in a holiday closure during the first week after the Spring Festival, with low inventory outflows. The cost increase at the source has been realized, and the phased relief of supply has provided some support for prices. The market is expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the medium and long term, but there is potential for an upward trend in the post - holiday peak season [4][7][8] Summary by Directory Period and Spot Market - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, while the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased to 780 yuan/cubic meter. The log market was in a holiday closure after the Spring Festival, with low inventory outflows [4] - Futures: As of February 25, the main log contract 2605 closed at 796 yuan/cubic meter, up from before the holiday. The sea freight from New Zealand to China in March has risen to $31 - 32, and the foreign offer in March has reached $117, resulting in a cost increase [4] Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the total departure of logs from 12 ports in New Zealand was 37 ships with 1.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 3 ships and 170,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, the total direct shipment to China was 31 ships with 1.2 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 ships and 280,000 cubic meters [4] - During the Spring Festival (February 9 - 24), 9 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at Rizhao Port in Shandong, with a volume of 333,000 cubic meters, at a relatively low level [4] - From February 7 - 13, the total departure of logs from 12 ports in New Zealand was 10 ships with 390,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, the direct shipment to China was 10 ships with 390,000 cubic meters, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters [4] - In December 2025, China's total import of softwood logs was approximately 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, China's total import of softwood logs decreased year - on - year in 2025 [4] Inventory - As of February 13, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 2.45 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.07 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; and the spruce/fir inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, remaining unchanged [6] - Before the Spring Festival, the inventory in China changed from decreasing to increasing. During the Spring Festival, the pressure on port arrivals was alleviated compared to previous years, while New Zealand faced some supply - side pressure due to inventory accumulation [6] Demand - From February 9 - 15, the average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 9,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 81.55% compared to the previous week. Among them, the average daily outflow of softwood logs from Shandong ports was 5,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 84.76%; and the average daily outflow of softwood logs from Jiangsu ports was 2,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 83.72% [6] - The log outflow decreased due to the closure of the spot market during the Spring Festival. Previously, the demand showed a north - south differentiation. Jiangsu saw a general price increase due to tight inventory and pre - holiday stocking demand, while Shandong's prices remained stable due to a large number of ships [6] Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows a significant resource concentration characteristic, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source is accumulating [7] - The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries, and the correlation between downstream construction timber and coke is 0.9 [7] - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial for wood product exports, especially boosting the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log inventories to meet export demand, but the current sluggish terminal market has a negative feedback effect [7] - The suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended, and there is still uncertainty in the export cost of Chinese wood products [7] - The General Administration of Customs has decided to revoke the suspension of importing US logs. However, the amount of US logs that can arrive at ports and complete customs clearance in the short term will still be limited [7] - A landslide occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island, which is expected to affect local logging operations and may cause delays in the shipment of some ships [7] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the designated car - board delivery locations for logs [7] Strategies and Recommendations - From July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot price also strengthened. However, due to the cautious market expectation for the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [8] - In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. The 2511 contract declined rapidly after the peak season, and the 2601 contract also entered a low - level oscillation [8] - Before the Spring Festival, the demand showed a north - south differentiation. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage was gradually alleviated, and the price increase trend may slow down; in Shandong, the demand was stable [8] - Currently, the main contract has changed to 2605. In the short term, it is expected to remain stable. There is an expectation of a short - term supply shortage after the holiday, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand [8]