春节需求预期持续改善，碳酸锂节后积极上行

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main contract of carbonate lithium rose from RMB 152,640/ton on February 13, 2026 to RMB 164,120/ton on February 24, 2026, a 7.52% increase, indicating a slight price increase The basis weakened from -RMB 8,840/ton to -RMB 20,320/ton (the negative value expanded), showing that the futures price rose faster than the spot price [1][30] - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest increased from 342,226 lots to 365,180 lots on February 24, 2026, a 6.71% growth, indicating an expansion of market participation The trading volume decreased from 300,191 lots to 214,364 lots, a 28.59% contraction, suggesting reduced trading activities, possibly due to post - holiday or market wait - and - see sentiment [1][30] Group 2: Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium decreased from 87.14% on February 6, 2026 to 85.72% on February 13, 2026, a 1.63% decline, indicating a slight supply contraction Overseas lithium ore quotes recovered, but spot circulation was stagnant Salt factories mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and the operating rate might be affected by maintenance (such as the concentrated maintenance period in February) The price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 6.33%, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate slightly decreased by 0.22%, with the overall raw material cost remaining stable [2][31] - Demand Side: New energy vehicle sales increased (data on February 11 showed year - on - year and month - on - month growth), but downstream procurement was weak as most enterprises had completed pre - holiday stocking Positive electrode materials such as power ternary materials rose by 1.81% and lithium iron phosphate rose by 3.85%, indicating demand support Cell prices remained stable After the holiday, with downstream resumption approaching, demand is expected to be released [2][31] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The carbonate lithium inventory decreased from 105,463 physical tons on February 6, 2026 to 102,932 physical tons on February 13, 2026, a 2.4% reduction, showing inventory depletion Although warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, the inventory decline might support prices [2][31] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - The carbonate lithium futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks, due to inventory depletion, improved demand expectations, and supply contraction [33][43]