沪铅弱势震荡难改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation higher than in previous years. It is expected that under the pressure of high lead inventory, the short - term weak oscillation pattern will remain unchanged. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the lead upstream and downstream and the progress of including recycled lead in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months. However, due to the high demand in the domestic winter lead concentrate market, the tight situation of the domestic ore end continues, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates have further declined at low levels. In February, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Supply - In January 2026, the output of primary lead was 342,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 17.92%, slightly exceeding expectations; the output of recycled refined lead was 282,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.82% and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. Affected by the regular maintenance of some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan and the shutdown of some enterprises during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic primary lead output in February is expected to decrease by about 23,500 tons compared with January, with a significant decline. Some maintenance enterprises plan to resume production at the end of February or early March; most recycled lead enterprises are still on holiday. Enterprises previously restricted by environmental protection in Anhui have recovered, but the operating rates in Jiangsu, Henan and other places are still at a low level due to factors such as workers' return to work, logistics tension and unsalable finished products. Before the festival, the weekly finished product inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises increased significantly, and due to the lack of downstream consumption during the Spring Festival, the inventory further accumulated after the festival, suppressing the increase of the operating rate. The centralized resumption of production of recycled lead enterprises will be concentrated in the second week after the festival (early March). After the festival, the price of waste batteries has decreased, but the losses of recycled lead enterprises are still large. The new national standard for recycled lead will be officially implemented on March 1st, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to include recycled lead meeting the new national standard as alternative delivery items. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio fluctuates, and the import of refined lead is in a continuous loss state [3] 3.3 Consumption - This week, enterprises are in the initial stage of resuming work after the festival. Although some enterprises have started equipment debugging and workers' return to work, the overall operating rate has not fully recovered, the procurement demand is light, and most of them are mainly for replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the pre - festival inventory of some enterprises has not been fully digested, resulting in a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market in the first week after the festival. It is expected that downstream enterprises will enter the centralized resumption of production period after the Lantern Festival. Before the festival, the inventory of new batteries was severely overstocked. According to the survey data, the inventory days of finished products of electric vehicle battery enterprises are generally about 25 - 30 days, and some enterprises even exceed 30 days, with relatively large inventory pressure [4] 3.4 Spot - As of the week of February 13th, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 40 yuan. As of February 20th, the London lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.13 US dollars [4] 3.5 Inventory - As of the week of February 20th, the weekly inventory of LME lead increased by 54,475 tons to 287,100 tons. The LME inventory increased significantly and was at an absolute high in the past five years. As of February 13th, the weekly inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8,715 tons to 565,390,000 tons. As of February 24th, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 64,300 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month, being at a relatively high level in the past four years [4]