2H25国内高端消费显著提升，富人资产修复背景下有望延续增势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The high-end consumption market is stabilizing and recovering, with strong recovery momentum in the Greater China region [3][68] - Starting from the second half of 2025, major luxury goods groups in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) have seen significant improvement in sales growth, with LVMH and Richemont reporting positive growth for the first time in seven quarters [4][68] - The recovery of the Chinese market has become a key variable for the performance recovery of global luxury goods groups, with brands optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market [4][68] Summary by Sections High-End Consumption Recovery - The high-end consumption data tracking system indicates a recovery in high-end consumer demand driven by wealth effects, with high-frequency indicators confirming this recovery [4][43] - Wealthy individuals' asset growth, duty-free shopping data from Hainan, Macau gaming data, and high-end hotel performance serve as indicators for high-end consumption trends [4][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end commercial real estate and luxury goods stocks, including China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), Swire Properties (1972.HK), and luxury brands such as Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK), Mao Ge Ping (1318.HK), and Xirui (2507.HK) [4][68] Hang Lung Properties Insights - In 2025, Hang Lung Properties' retail sales in mainland malls are expected to increase by 4% year-on-year, with significant acceleration in the second half of the year [12][17] - The company is optimizing tenant management to enhance mall content and experience, achieving record high foot traffic in mainland malls [18][22] Swire Properties Insights - Swire Properties' malls are expected to continue recovering in 2025, with notable performance from Shanghai's Xinyi Swire [32][40] - The report highlights that the retail sales growth of Swire Properties' malls has significantly accelerated in the second half of 2025, indicating strong recovery momentum in the high-end consumption market [32][40]