若政府房贷贴息政策实施，效果如何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mortgage interest subsidy policy can activate demand in the short term, but its overall effectiveness in boosting sales highly depends on the local market fundamentals and policy coordination environment [3][23]. - The mortgage interest subsidy policy is a tactical tool effective in a specific stage, and its ultimate effectiveness depends on whether it can form a synergy with supply - side reforms and macro - income improvement policies to jointly promote the market towards a new balance [24]. - In 2026, the possibility of a unified national standard and full - coverage mortgage interest subsidy policy is low. It is more likely to be gradually promoted in a top - down manner with local governments implementing policies according to the city's situation [36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2. Mortgage Interest Subsidy Policy's Main Forms and Burden - Reduction Effect Calculation - Fixed - ratio subsidy model: It is the most widely used mainstream model. Local governments calculate the total financial subsidy based on a certain fixed ratio of the initial loan principal for eligible first - home purchase loans within the policy window period. For example, Nanjing, Changchun, and Wuhan have different fixed - ratio subsidy policies [16]. - Interest - ratio subsidy model: Some regions use the method of subsidizing a percentage of the loan interest. It is usually applied in scenarios that require long - term incentives or refined support for specific groups, such as Yuncheng's policy for high - level talents [17]. - Real - estate enterprise - oriented subsidy model: It is a market - based supplementary behavior. Real - estate developers initiate and bear all costs to promote the sales of specific properties. In some cases, it can cooperate with local government policies [21]. - Burden - reduction effect calculation: Assuming a loan of 1 million yuan, a 30 - year term, and an estimated interest rate of 3.2%, different cities' policies have different monthly payment reduction effects, with the total subsidy amount and equivalent actual interest rates varying [22]. 3. Evaluation of Policy Effects in Pilot Cities: Impact on Real Estate Sales - Tracking the effects of major pilot cities: There are significant regional differences in policy effects. Nanjing Yuhuatai District had a significant short - term stimulation effect, with a 28.6% year - on - year increase in commercial residential sales area from June to December 2024, far exceeding the 4.9% increase in Nanjing city. Other regions had limited improvements [3][23]. - Analysis and limitations of mortgage interest subsidy policy effects: The policy can activate market demand and stabilize market expectations in the short term, but it has short - term and volatile characteristics. It cannot fundamentally reverse the market trend determined by long - term factors and cannot solve structural contradictions in the market [24]. 4. Prediction of Fiscal Fund Requirements if the Mortgage Interest Subsidy Policy is Implemented Nationwide in 2026 - Prediction of new mortgage loan scale in 2026: It is predicted that the total sales of new residential properties in 2026 will be about 6.2 trillion yuan, and that of second - hand residential properties will be about 8.8 trillion yuan. The new mortgage loan scale for new commercial residential properties is about 1.95 trillion yuan, and that for second - hand residential properties is about 2.75 trillion yuan [26][29]. - Analysis of fiscal feasibility and the possibility of nationwide implementation: The mortgage interest subsidy policy can achieve multiple policy goals, but it cannot solve deep - seated contradictions in the real estate market alone. Fiscal cost is a basic factor for policy promotion. A unified national policy is neither realistic nor sustainable. It is more likely to be gradually promoted in a top - down manner with local governments implementing policies according to the city's situation [35][36].