Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-25 09:46Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic rubber-producing areas are in the off-season, the output in northern Thailand is decreasing, and the output in southern Thailand will enter the low-yield period. The upstream supply has entered the seasonal production reduction period, and the raw material prices are firm [2]. - During the Spring Festival holiday in China, the overall trading was sluggish. Recently, the general trade inventory in Qingdao has continued to accumulate, with a relatively large accumulation range. Next week, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work and production, the accumulation range may narrow, but the terminal replacement demand is still restricted by the resumption rhythm of logistics and infrastructure and the consumer wait-and-see sentiment [2]. - The terminal substantial demand will gradually be released after March. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in domestic inventory and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,300 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 17,240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 210 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,980 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 is 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the spread between 20 - number rubber 4 - 5 is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,260 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,091 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 13,023 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 45,890 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,632 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,223 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,359 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 642 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,055 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 530 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 530 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,180 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,671 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 116 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is - 124 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 731 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.79 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 3.32 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 64.05 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 67 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 4.7 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 8 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 14.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 28.2 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 14.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 45.2 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.86 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.43 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.5%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.89%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.58%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.46 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2]. - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, an increase of 9.67% [2]. - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].