宏观专题：“双碳”政策有望提力加速

Policy Overview - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to accelerate in 2026, focusing on three main areas: nationwide implementation of zero-carbon factories, expansion of the carbon emission rights market, and construction of a product carbon footprint factor database[2][16]. Policy Goals - By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to reach approximately 25%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous goal of 20% set for the 14th Five-Year Plan[11][12]. - The carbon emissions per unit of GDP are expected to decrease by over 65% compared to 2005 levels by 2030. As of 2024, emissions have already decreased by 52.4% compared to 2005, necessitating an average annual reduction of 5.0% from 2024 to 2030 to meet this target[11][12]. Implementation Mechanisms - 2026 marks the first year of transitioning from an "energy consumption dual control" system to a "carbon emission dual control" system, enhancing the precision and efficiency of carbon reduction efforts[14][15]. - Local governments will face formal carbon assessments for the first time in 2026, which is expected to strengthen the implementation of the dual carbon policy[15]. Key Initiatives - Nationwide promotion of zero-carbon factories will begin, with a focus on key industries such as automotive, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, aiming to establish benchmarks for other sectors by 2027[17]. - The carbon emission rights market will expand to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, with the first allocations for 2025 expected to be completed by the end of 2026[18]. - The construction of a product carbon footprint factor database is set to be initiated, with a preliminary version expected by early 2027 and a complete version by 2030[19]. Risks - Potential delays in the implementation of the dual carbon policy could lead to slower-than-expected improvements in carbon emissions[22]. - If fiscal policy support for the dual carbon initiatives is weaker than anticipated, it may hinder progress[22]. - Unforeseen geopolitical risks could impact commodity prices, affecting energy sectors closely tied to the dual carbon goals[22].