国际宏观资讯双周报-20260225

Economic Insights - The US GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 slowed to 1.4%, with an annual growth of 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, marking the weakest performance since 2022[11] - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025, the highest level in nearly five years, with total unemployed reaching approximately 1.883 million[15] - South Korea's imports to the US decreased by 5.9% to $113.4 billion in 2025, marking the lowest share of US imports at 3.6% since 1988[14] Trade and Tariff Developments - The US imposed a 10% tariff on imports from various countries, including South Korea and Japan, for 150 days, following a Supreme Court ruling against previous tariffs[7] - The US and Indonesia signed a reciprocal trade agreement, eliminating tariffs on over 1,800 Indonesian goods, while maintaining a 19% tariff on most Indonesian products[22] - Japan's national debt is projected to reach ¥1,342.2 trillion by the end of 2025, an increase of approximately ¥24.54 trillion from 2024[29] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the start of a new rate hike cycle due to persistent high inflation[19] - Egypt's central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points, with inflation dropping to 10.1% in January 2026, down from 23.2% a year earlier[23] - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest in a decade, with nominal wage growth at only 2.0%, below the 3.1% inflation rate[20] Strategic Economic Initiatives - Abu Dhabi's GDP grew by 7.7% in Q3 2025, reaching AED 325.7 billion, driven by a 13.9% increase in the construction sector[26] - The UAE's industrial exports reached AED 262 billion in 2025, a 25% increase year-on-year, with a significant contribution from high-tech products[43]