全球股市立体投资策略周报2月第2期：关税、地缘与AI叙事扰动，春节多数资产收涨-20260225

Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a broad increase during the Spring Festival, with MSCI Global rising by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets by 0.8% [8][14] - The strongest performance in developed markets was from the South Korean Composite Index, which rose by 5.5%, while the weakest was the Nikkei 225, which fell by 0.2% [8][14] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield saw the largest increase of 4.0 basis points, while Japan experienced the largest decrease of 9.3 basis points [8][16] Trading Sentiment - Trading volumes in major markets decreased during the Spring Festival, with the S&P 500's trading volume dropping to 3.6 billion shares and $503.7 billion [18] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong declined, with the short-selling ratio rising to 20.2%, indicating a historical low in sentiment [18][21] - In contrast, the North American investment sentiment, as measured by the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index, increased to 82.9%, reflecting a historically high position [18][21] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for U.S. stocks were revised upward, with the S&P 500's 2026 EPS forecast increasing from +12.7% to +12.9% [66] - In comparison, the earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks remained flat, with the Hang Seng Index's 2026 EPS forecast at +11.1% [66] - European stocks saw a downward revision in earnings expectations, with the Eurozone STOXX50's 2026 EPS forecast adjusted from -3.1% to -3.0% [66][67] Economic Expectations - Economic indicators showed a notable recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. economic surprise index was downgraded due to lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [8][66] - The European economic surprise index increased, likely due to the rejection of tariff decisions and significant growth in German economic output [8][66] Fund Flows - There was a marginal tightening in overseas liquidity expectations, with the market anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times in 2026, a decrease from the previous week [50][51] - Global micro liquidity saw significant inflows into the U.S., Europe, South Korea, and Japan, while there was a net outflow from mainland China [58][61]