瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - L2605 oscillates weakly, closing at 6,777 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the domestic PE operating rate increased by 1.13% to 88.43%. There are few planned device overhauls in March, but the number of temporarily shut - down devices is expected to increase due to low - profit conditions. After the device commissioning is postponed, there is a commissioning window from February to March, and the domestic PE supply pressure is expected to be relatively limited. Downstream industries will fully resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the domestic demand is supported as the mulch film enters the traditional peak season in March. Attention should be paid to the post - festival PE inventory reduction rhythm. In terms of cost, Iran plans to take necessary measures to reach an agreement with the US, and the US API inventory decreased more than expected, with international oil prices slightly falling yesterday. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and the daily K - line should focus on the support near 6,690 and the pressure near 6,855 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures main contract closing price of polyethylene: 6,777 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; 1 - month contract closing price: 6,860 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; 5 - month contract closing price: 6,777 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; 9 - month contract closing price: 6,847 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2] - Trading volume: 340,289 lots, down 14,612 lots; open interest: 507,884 lots, up 25,650 lots [2] - 1 - 5 spread: 83, up 20; 5 - 9 spread: - 70, down 12; 9 - 1 spread: - 13, down 8 [2] - Futures top 20 long positions: 512,438 lots, up 13,795 lots; short positions: 560,798 lots, up 22,074 lots; net long positions: - 48,360 lots, down 8,279 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE (7042) average price in North China: 6,729.13 yuan/ton, up 24.35 yuan; in East China: 6,802.56 yuan/ton, up 16.98 yuan [2] - Basis: - 47.87, up 67.35 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore: 66.42 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13 US dollars; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan: 613.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars [2] - Ethylene CFR Southeast Asia middle price: 686 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia middle price: 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - National PE petrochemical operating rate: 88.43%, up 1.13% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE packaging film operating rate: 20.3%, unchanged; PE pipe operating rate: 0%, down 9.33%; PE agricultural film operating rate: 24.74%, down 5.44% [2] 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene: 19.96%, up 2.28%; 40 - day historical volatility: 18.34%, up 1.32% [2] - At - the - money put option implied volatility of polyethylene: 15.75%, up 1.03%; At - the - money call option implied volatility: 15.75%, up 1.02% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From February 14th to 20th, PE capacity utilization was 88.43%, up 1.13% month - on - month [2] - From February 6th to 12th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.90% month - on - month, among which the agricultural film operating rate decreased by 5.4% and the packaging film operating rate decreased by 18.5% [2] - As of February 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 343,700 tons, down 9.48% from last week; as of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, up 4.70% from last week [2] - From February 8th to 13th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.81% to 7,490 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 135 yuan/ton to - 830 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.21% to 6,498 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton [2]