瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply side shows a significant decline in coal mine operating loads, with slight inventory fluctuations and an increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side has coking enterprises maintaining the pre - holiday capacity utilization level, a significant decrease in coking coal inventory, and an accumulation of coke inventory, with the profit per ton of coke remaining the same as before the holiday. Overall, with some steel enterprises in North China implementing self - emission reduction, there is an expectation of improvement in the steel market supply - demand situation, leading to a rise in coking coal futures prices. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose, and the Two Sessions will provide short - term support, so it is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For coke, on the supply side, coking enterprises maintain the pre - holiday load level, and due to the impact of Spring Festival logistics and transportation, the on - site inventory has accumulated. On the demand side, the support from molten iron production is limited. Overall, with some steel mills in North China implementing self - emission reduction, there is an expectation of improvement in the steel market fundamentals, leading to a rise in coke futures prices. The supply of coking enterprises remains stable, and the steel market inventory has accumulated, with a loose supply - demand situation. The Two Sessions will provide short - term support, so it is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1126.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 yuan [2] - J main contract closing price: 1674.00 yuan/ton, up 39.50 yuan [2] - JM futures contract open interest: 646763.00 lots, up 28114.00 lots [2] - J futures contract open interest: 41830.00 lots, down 869.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 82202.00 lots, down 2065.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: 478.00 lots, up 422.00 lots [2] - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 84.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2] - J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 69.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan [2] - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 300.00 sheets, down 100.00 sheets [2] - Coke warehouse receipts: 1420.00 sheets, unchanged [2] - JM main contract basis: 179.00 yuan/ton, down 64.50 yuan [2] - J main contract basis: 46.00 yuan/ton, down 39.50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 1006.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan [2] - Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR): 163.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars [2] - Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal (yard price): 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal (yard price): 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi: 1375.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 24.30 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2] - Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 309.00 million tons, down 25.50 million tons [2] - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.32%, down 0.03% [2] - Raw coal output: 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons [2] - Coal and lignite import volume: 5860.00 million tons, up 1455.00 million tons [2] - Daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 108.60 million tons, down 72.20 million tons [2] - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 496.27 million tons, unchanged [2] - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 893.49 million tons, down 224.60 million tons [2] - Coke inventory at 18 ports: 263.86 million tons, down 6.13 million tons [2] - Coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 55.52 million tons, up 11.77 million tons [2] - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 820.35 million tons, down 17.90 million tons [2] - Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 688.61 million tons, down 9.30 million tons [2] - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 13.06 days, down 0.28 days [2] - Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 12.46 days, down 0.24 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal import volume: 1376.98 million tons, up 303.83 million tons [2] - Coke and semi - coke export volume: 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2] - Total coking coal supply: 5478.50 million tons, up 238.93 million tons [2] - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 72.20%, up 0.34% [2] - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: - 8.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan [2] - Coke output: 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 80.13%, up 0.60% [2] - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 86.41%, up 0.72% [2] - Crude steel output: 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15%. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security". [2] - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary self - emission reduction during the 2026 National Important Conference, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4th to March 11th, with the blast furnace load self - reducing by no less than 30%. [2]