PP日报：震荡运行-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern improvement of PP is limited after the Spring Festival, but there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival. Also, continue to shrink the L - PP spread due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for plastic film [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 20th, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday. On February 25th, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring dropped to around 27%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Wednesday, it decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The cost of crude oil increased during the Spring Festival due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a decrease in US crude oil and refined oil inventories. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and moved in a volatile manner, closing at 6,720 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. The position increased by 7,385 lots to 479,778 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions increased, with drawstring prices ranging from 6,310 to 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 25th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring dropped to around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 20th, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday [4]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Wednesday, it decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year, at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $71 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $835 per ton [5].