焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the coke industry is volatile, and a low - buying strategy is recommended, with attention paid to the support level near the previous low and the resistance level near the previous high [2] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, coke is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the intensity of production resumption should be continuously monitored. The post - holiday replenishment of downstream steel mills is delayed, and there is no obvious increase in coke demand. Although Trump's tariff policy has raised market concerns, the upcoming Two Sessions still bring policy expectations [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of February 13, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 78,800 tons to 1.0507 billion tons, reaching a high in more than 9 months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.28% [1] - During the Spring Festival holiday, the coke price remained stable. This week, the profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide remained stable at - 8 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton of coke in each region basically remained unchanged [1] - The resumption of production in downstream steel mills mostly occurs after the Lantern Festival. There is no centralized procurement in the short term, and inventory replenishment may be postponed to the second week after the holiday. Currently, there is no obvious increase in coke demand [1] - During the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines were on holiday and production stopped, resulting in a decrease in coking coal supply. After the holiday consumption, the inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased. The comprehensive coking coal inventory decreased by 2.784 million tons to 2.64731 billion tons month - on - month, 3.94% lower than the same period last year [1] - Shanghai further relaxed purchase restrictions and optimized the provident fund loan policy. The Two Sessions will be held on March 4 - 5 next week. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent US tariff adjustment, stating that counter - measures will be adjusted as appropriate [1]