原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will experience a short - term strong and volatile trend. The outcome of the US - Iran negotiations is uncertain and has a significant impact on oil prices, so risk control should be noted [1] Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1] - As of the week ending February 13, US crude oil inventories decreased significantly more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased more than expected, alleviating concerns about oversupply. Winter storms may stimulate heating demand [1] - The second - round US - Iran negotiations are uncertain. There are still differences on key issues, and the US may use force if necessary. A new round of negotiations is scheduled for February 26 in Geneva [1] - Due to US trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas [1] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues, and both sides are still attacking each other [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 0.33% to 488.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 484.8 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 495.9 yuan/ton. The position increased by 2337 to 41463 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending February 13, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.014 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.213 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 4.566 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.095 million barrels [3] - In January, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4] - US crude oil production increased by 22,000 barrels per day to 13.735 million barrels per day in the week of February 13 [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.196 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. Gasoline and diesel production increased both weekly and in the four - week average [4]