全球股市立体投资策略周报2月第2期：关税、地缘与AI叙事扰动，春节多数资产收涨

Market Performance - During the Spring Festival, developed markets saw a broad increase, with MSCI Global rising by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets increasing by 0.8%[8] - The strongest performer among developed markets was the South Korean Composite Index, which rose by 5.5%, while the weakest was the Nikkei 225, which fell by 0.2%[8] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield increased by 4.0 basis points, while Japan's yield decreased by 9.3 basis points[8] Investor Sentiment - Trading volumes in major markets decreased during the Spring Festival, with the S&P 500 trading volume down to 3.6 billion shares and $503.7 billion in value[18] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong declined, with short-selling ratios rising to 20.2%, indicating a historical low in sentiment[18] - Conversely, the North American investment sentiment, as measured by the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index, increased to 82.9%, reflecting a historically high position[18] Earnings Expectations - U.S. earnings expectations for 2026 were revised upward, with the S&P 500 EPS forecast increasing from +12.7% to +12.9%[65] - The Hong Kong market's earnings expectations remained stable, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast at +11.1%[65] - European earnings expectations were revised downward, with the Eurozone STOXX50 EPS forecast adjusted from -3.1% to -3.0%[66] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic surprise index was downgraded, influenced by lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs and AI disruptions[8] - In contrast, the European economic surprise index rose, driven by significant growth in German economic output[8] - The Chinese economic surprise index also improved, supported by strong travel and consumption during the Spring Festival[8] Liquidity Trends - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts decreased, with projections now at 2.2 cuts for 2026, down from previous estimates[50] - Global liquidity conditions tightened marginally, with the SOFR-OIS spread narrowing, indicating a slight easing of liquidity risks[50] - Significant capital inflows were observed in the U.S., Europe, South Korea, and Japan, while there was a notable outflow from mainland China[60]