平安好医生（01833）：前瞻：预计收入稳健增长，利润率继续提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 13.34 HKD and a target value of 19.65 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of 13.6% in 2025, reaching 5.46 billion RMB. The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable, and the adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 132% to 368 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 6.7% [7][9]. - The focus on strategic business areas is expected to drive rapid growth in B-end enterprise health income, while F-end growth remains stable. The collaboration with the group to create a comprehensive health service product is expected to accelerate the expansion of corporate clients [7][9]. - The company is enhancing its service network through the "Ping An Circle," which integrates various health service resources to provide a one-stop health service solution for corporate clients [7][9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 4,674 million RMB - 2024A: 4,808 million RMB - 2025E: 5,460 million RMB (growth rate: 13.6%) - 2026E: 6,257 million RMB (growth rate: 14.6%) - 2027E: 7,202 million RMB (growth rate: 15.1%) [6][13]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be: - 2025E: 368 million RMB - 2026E: 489 million RMB - 2027E: 618 million RMB [6][17]. Business Segmentation - Revenue by business segment is projected as follows: - Medical Services: - 2025E: 2,483 million RMB - 2026E: 2,856 million RMB - 2027E: 3,284 million RMB - Health Services: - 2025E: 2,592 million RMB - 2026E: 2,929 million RMB - 2027E: 3,310 million RMB - Elderly Care Services: - 2025E: 385 million RMB - 2026E: 472 million RMB - 2027E: 608 million RMB [13][17]. Valuation and Comparison - The company is valued at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 6 times for 2026, leading to a target price of 19.65 HKD per share. This valuation reflects the company's focus on high-margin services and operational efficiency improvements [7][10]. - Compared to peers like Alibaba Health and JD Health, which have lower gross margins, the company maintains a higher gross margin of approximately 32% [10][18].