贵金属专题报告：贵金属马年强势开局结构，牛市警惕高位波动

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The precious metals market may show a strong oscillation pattern at high levels, with short - term fluctuations intensifying but a clear medium - term upward trend. Geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties form the core support, while the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the pressure of high - level profit - taking create temporary constraints. Macro - uncertainty premiums persist [3][28]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, overseas precious metals markets first declined and then rose with intensified fluctuations. After the holiday, the domestic market made up for the gains. As of February 24, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 3.52% to 1150.50 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract soared 12.84% to 22327 yuan/kilogram. The platinum main contract on the GZFE rose 5.54% to 551.85 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.57% to 438.45 yuan/gram [5]. - Gold is stable due to its dual attributes of hedging and currency. Silver has strong speculative properties and high volatility. Platinum and palladium follow the overall precious metals market [6]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Since February, geopolitical situations have been highly volatile. In the Middle East, the US - Iran negotiation first showed positive signs but then fell into a deadlock, increasing the risk of regional conflict. The next round of negotiation is set for February 26. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the new negotiation from February 26 - 27 is expected to make no substantial progress. Geopolitical risks provide a rigid support for precious metals [15][16][17]. 3. US Tariff Policy - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy evolved through judicial denial, quick replacement, and rate increase, intensifying global trade uncertainty. The policy's spill - over effects spread, and the conflict between the US and Europe became obvious, driving funds to allocate precious metals [18]. 4. Fed Monetary Policy - US macro data influence is weakened, and policy uncertainty dominates. The Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the first rate cut to be postponed to the second half of the year. The legal risks and internal disputes of the Fed increase the uncertainty of rate - cut expectations, with a neutral - to - positive impact on precious metals [19][20][22]. 5. Capital Position - Capital flow and institutional expectations show that the precious metals market is dominated by macro - finance and hedging. Gold ETFs have seen continuous increases in holdings, and silver ETFs have rebounded. Platinum and palladium futures positions fluctuate following the market, with no clear one - sided bets [23][25][27]. 6. Future Outlook - The precious metals market may oscillate strongly at high levels. Gold is recommended to hold long - term positions; silver should be observed more, with light positions for speculative trading; platinum and palladium should be traded in short - term and light - position bands [28].