橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧出现能化高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise in closing price. The closing price rose 2.10% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a moderately bullish oscillatory trend [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price reached 2,292 yuan/ton, the lowest dropped to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased 0.88% to 2,249 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 38 yuan/ton. The rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East are pitted against the increasing supply pressure of domestic methanol. It is expected that methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [7]. - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, high - level oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The highest price reached 495.9 yuan/barrel, the lowest dropped to 484.8 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly decreased 0.33% to 488.3 yuan/barrel. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East heat up again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory trend [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons or 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, an increase of 9.67%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at the annual low [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. Specifically, the passenger car market declined. In January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million and 1.988 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% and 6.8% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 28.4% and 30.2% respectively. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 388,000 and 359,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% and 23.5% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and 15.6% respectively [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, basically the same as in December 2025, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 430 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 26.66%, a small week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 6.62%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 79.92%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 55.83%, a small week - on - week decrease of 2.32%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 80.21%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 1.62%. As of February 13, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefins futures contract profit was - 71 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month increase of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period of the previous year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day, a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, and at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate remained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average net long non - commercial positions in WTI crude oil futures were 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts or 94.12% compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts or 35.55% compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 17,240 yuan/ton | + 210 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,260 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | 2,249 yuan/ton | - 36 yuan/ton | + 11 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 471.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | 488.3 yuan/barrel | - 5.0 yuan/barrel | - 17.1 yuan/barrel | + 4.3 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, inventory, and methanol - to - olefins开工率), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes), but no specific data analysis of the charts is provided [16][29][42]