山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260225

1. Report on Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.04%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 4.57%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7.03%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.50% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the safe - haven aspect, the risk of the trade war has eased, but the risk of geopolitical fluctuations still exists. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's 10% global tariff has officially taken effect, and the White House plans to further raise it to 15%. China has clearly stated that it will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. At the same time, China and the US are maintaining communication about Trump's visit to China. The White House said that Trump prefers diplomatic means for Iran but is willing to use deadly force if necessary, and the risk of conflicts between the US and Iran still exists [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the pro - interest - rate - cut group and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects the Fed to complete an interest rate cut this year, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are volatile and slightly upward [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is volatile and slightly downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly upward in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5160.50 per ounce, down $87.40 (-1.67%) from the previous day and up $264.40 (5.40%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $5120.25 per ounce, down $71.15 (-1.37%) from the previous day and up $258.80 (5.32%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1151.06 yuan per gram, up 0.56 yuan (0.05%) from the previous day and up 29.84 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of Comex gold is 407,078 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 2,616 lots (-0.64%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 155,075 lots (1 kilogram per lot), down 2,336 lots (-1.48%) from the previous day and down 1,835 lots (-1.17%) from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory is 9,158 tons, unchanged from the previous day and week [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.07 per ounce, down $0.93 (-1.06%) from the previous day and up $13.52 (18.38%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $88.11 per ounce, up $1.17 (1.34%) from the previous day and up $13.46 (18.03%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 23,029 yuan per kilogram, up 702 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,745 yuan (13.53%) from the previous week [5]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of Comex silver is 131,496 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), down 2,145 lots (-1.61%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 2,740,005 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 113,550 lots (4.32%) from the previous day and down 504,420 lots (-15.55%) from the previous week. The LBMA silver inventory is 27,729 tons, down 89 tons (-0.32%) from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from the previous week. The London platinum price is $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from the previous week [8]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract is 51,840 lots (50 ounces per lot), down 754 lots (-1.43%) from the previous day and down 1,408 lots (-0.92%) from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum total inventory is 19 tons, down 0 tons (-0.89%) from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from the previous week. The London palladium price is $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from the previous week [10]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract is 4,266 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 1,356 lots (-24.12%) from the previous day and down 5,814 lots (-57.68%) from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium total inventory is 6 tons, down 0 tons (-0.32%) from the previous week [10]. 3.5 Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - Monetary Attribute: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6,664.37 billion, down $9.037 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [11]. - US Economic Data: The GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate is 4.30%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 130,000, up 8,200 from the previous value [13]. - Inflation Data: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous value. The CPI (month - on - month) is 0.40%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value [11]. - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 76.86, down 59.11 (-43.47%) from the previous value. The VIX index is 19.55, down 1.46 (-6.95%) from the previous value. The CRB commodity index is 309.80, down 0.34 (-0.11%) from the previous value [13]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times [15].