【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The sustainability of the far - month contract rise requires near - month inventory reduction, and the policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will be decisive for the future market trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area rose strongly, with the price of 39% protein commercial beans in some areas exceeding 2.3 yuan per catty. The remaining soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and soybean trade is expected to fully resume after the Lantern Festival. After the holiday, market players have a general need to replenish stocks, so the price of domestic soybeans is still supported in the short term. However, the short - term over - rise of the soybean futures before the festival has led to a negative basis with the spot, which restricts the increase to some extent. Pay attention to the auction announcement of state - reserve imported soybeans next week. Overall, the low point of soybean prices has passed, and the subsequent trend will be more of an oscillating upward one [1] Corn - The Shandong and North China markets have seen a pre - emptive rise. Affected by the slow recovery of logistics after the festival and the incomplete start of grass - roots grain sales, the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has remained low, with only more than a hundred vehicles arriving in Shandong in the morning. Enterprises have to raise prices to ensure daily production and replenish post - holiday inventory. In the short term, the low point of corn prices may still fluctuate, but since the stage of the greatest supply pressure has passed, the downside space is relatively limited. If there is a decline and adjustment, it is advisable to consider actively replenishing stocks or buying [1] Egg - Currently, the inventory at all links has accumulated to a certain extent, while the downstream demand is in the early stage of recovery. In the short term, the egg price may remain weakly fluctuating near the opening price, and all parties will mainly focus on digesting inventory. From the supply side, the number of culled laying hens in February may be greater than the supply of newly - laid hens, so the inventory of laying hens in production may decline to a certain extent, but the absolute value is still at a high level, providing limited support for prices. Since the pricing difference of contracts after March has been obvious, the driving force of this slight decline in inventory has been basically exhausted, and further clarity on culling hens is needed for eggs to have more upward - driving forces [2] Pig - Official data shows that the inventory of reproductive sows in December was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million, continuing the trend of capacity reduction; while the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises of Zhuochuang increased to 6.7123 million in January, an increase of 0.0353 million, indicating that large - scale farms have slightly replenished at the low level. The survival rate of piglets has dropped to 93.73%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points, possibly affected by winter diseases, posing a potential pressure on the supply of piglets in spring. In terms of slaughter supply, the pig inventory in January decreased to 56.5446 million, a decrease of 0.3085 million; the monthly slaughter volume was 13.149 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5704 million, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the slowdown in slaughter during the Spring Festival holiday. The slaughter weight has not changed much, and the supply structure has not undergone extreme adjustments [2]