【冠通期货研究报告】沪铜日报：高铜价影响下游需求复苏-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market need time to recover. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, and high inventories are capping the upside. However, tight supply and overall support from the non - ferrous metals sector make copper prices more likely to rise than fall. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Geneva negotiations should be closely monitored for potential market volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Market sentiment: The US has moved from the "strategic deterrence stage" to the "executable options stage" in the Iran issue, and military options are now in the decision - making range. This may cause market fluctuations due to risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Supply: During the holiday, the upstream smelting load was relatively normal, and subsequent copper supply will remain high and stable. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected. SMM predicts that the production of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [1]. - Demand: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Downstream factories have not fully resumed production, resulting in low market trading activity. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [1]. - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 287,800 tons, an increase of 1,070 tons from the previous period. As of February 12, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory is 84,700 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 243,200 tons, an increase of 1,350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 601,600 short tons, an increase of 1,734 short tons from the previous period [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher during the day, showing strength [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 185 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 225 yuan/ton. On February 24, 2026, the LME official price is 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 89 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply - side Information - As of February 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50.97 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.02 US cents/pound [9].