【冠通期货研究报告】油粕日报：偏强震荡-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to continue its upward trend this week, while the oil market is cautiously optimistic with limited downside and policy - guided upside potential [1][2] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of the week ending February 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 669,865 tons, down from the revised 1,215,299 tons last week and 879,226 tons in the same period last year. The total US soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far has reached 25,033,167 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%, and it has reached 58.4% of the annual export target [1] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in February 2026 will be 10.69 million tons, about 0.8 million tons lower than the previous estimate, but still 9.9% higher than 9.726 million tons in February last year. The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [1] - US soybean exports continue to be strong, and the lower - than - expected shipments from Brazil in February may reduce the expected arrivals in April, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal prices. Attention should be paid to arrivals and state reserve releases, and the market is expected to remain strong and volatile this week [1] Fats and Oils - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 20, 2026, is estimated to have decreased by 12.29%, with different degrees of decline in different regions [2] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 25, 2026, were 922,649 tons, a 16.05% decrease from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month [2] - The US EPA will submit the final biofuel blending quota to the White House before the weekend, and the White House will review and announce the final result within about 30 days, meeting the self - set deadline of the end of March to complete the renewable energy use targets for 2026 and 2027 [2] - US soybean oil is supported by US biofuel policies and shows a strong trend. During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil is in a stage of weak supply and demand. February inventory is expected to decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the near - term rebound height. The oil sector is generally cautiously optimistic, with limited downside and policy - guided upside. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations and the implementation of US biofuel policies [2]