【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：震荡运行-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 135,000 tons (6.5%). Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased. It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Demand side: During the Spring Festival, most downstream industries of asphalt shut down. The road asphalt operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to 0% week - on - week. The national shipment volume decreased 14.59% to 131,700 tons week - on - week, at a low level. The asphalt market transaction was light during the Spring Festival [1]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, asphalt factory inventories increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.50% to 3,358 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,341 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,373 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4,543 to 141,450 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,300 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 58 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year. As of the week of February 6, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 24, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13 [4].